Thursday, June 25, 2015

Emergency... Any Lessons Learnt?

 
It is past midnight. The calendar on my laptop shows 26th June, the date on which, forty years ago, newspapers across the country carried news of the proclamation of Emergency in India. They say it was actually proclaimed on 25th June, 1975. Who knows the actual time the then President of India signed the order? Who knows at what time Lok Nayak Jayaprakash Narayan was arrested for asking for total revolution? Who knows at what time Atal Behari Vajpayee was put behind bars for being an opposition leader?  

There was a statement by Prime Minister Modi during the day today, calling Emergency the blackest phase of Indian democracy. That is all. No hullabaloo by the press which had lost its voice on this day, with a single signature of the then President.
 



President Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed declares emergency in India after finding the security of India threatened following Allahabad High Court judgment declaring Indira Gandhi's election as MP null and void


I find it hard to sleep. Till late night the youngsters in the family were asking me questions about Emergency. They wanted to know the truth about Emergency, about my personal experiences. They have gone to bed now. But I am still lost in the reminiscences of the days when I was studying the definitions of Democracy in college and experiencing it differently in real life.

I give credit for people’s renewed interest in the blackest chapter of free India to Lal Krishna Advani’s recent statement, “… I don't have the confidence that Emergency cannot happen again," adding "I do not see any sign in our polity that assures me..." Advani talked about ‘polity’ but people interpreted it the way it suited them. Media saw it as another source of TRPs, without stepping out of their luxurious air-conditioned cabins! Political parties other than the BJP interpreted it as a barb against Modi. Kejriwal jumped so much with joy that he went to the extent of seeking an appointment with Advani with a hope to encash the statement in his favour. But Advani clarified that he had spoken "precisely about the Emergency in the interview, and there is absolutely no reason to interpret it in the present day context, as there is no reference to it. I have spoken only about Emergency."

I am glad that the young generation is interested in knowing about the Emergency.

They kept asking and I kept sharing. I re-lived all the moments yet again.

I had attained adulthood. I got up in the morning to be greeted by a newspaper with the headline that all prominent political leaders of opposition like Jayaprakash Narayan, Morarji Desai, Atal Behari Vajpayee and Lal Krishna Advani, had been arrested during the early hours of the day. It was shocking!




National Herald dated 26th June, 1975

The Hindu dated 26th June, 1975

This was done under the draconian MISA (Maintenance of Internal Security Act).

It was also reported that a state of Emergency had been proclaimed in India by the then President, Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed, on the advice of the Prime Minister, Indira Gandhi.

Emergency was declared in India earlier too - in 1962 during the Indo-China war and again in 1971 during the Indo-Pakistan war. But it was different this time. There was no external aggression in sight. It had been proclaimed because Indira Gandhi’s election to the Lok Sabha from Rai Bareilly constituency had been declared ‘null and void’ by the Allahabad High Court on the charges of misuse of Government machinery for her election campaign and Indira Gandhi was not ready to honour the High Court judgment and step down. While the judicial jugglery was on, Jayaprakash Narayan, in a huge rally in Delhi on 25th June 1975, called for a civil disobedience campaign to force the resignation of the Prime Minister. In response, Emergency was imposed to tackle the civil disobedience campaign before it could ever take off!
 

Prime Minister Indira Gandhi's official letter to the President Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed
recommending that Emergency be declared in India - the President gladly accepts.


“Dictatorship has been declared in India”, the word spread like wildfire. Time proved that this was, indeed, dictatorship.

You do not understand the true meaning of things like democracy and civil liberties as long as you enjoy them.  We realize their worth and value only when they are taken away from us. Emergency was proclaimed under Article 352 of the Constitution which supposedly was beyond the purview of the judiciary to question or inquire into.

Arrest of prominent leaders was just the beginning. It was followed by arrest of more than 50,000 people, or if the unconfirmed sources are to be believed, lakhs of people all over India.

India practically turned into a Unitary state from Federal, as enshrined in our constitution, with all powers usurped by the Central Government. All the seven freedoms granted by Article 19 of the Indian constitution to individuals - namely the Freedom of Speech and Expression, Freedom of Assembly, Freedom of Association, Freedom of Movement, Freedom of Residence and Settlement, Freedom of Property and Freedom of Profession, Occupation, Trade or Business - were suspended.

Many groups and parties including the RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh), that could possibly help the JP movement, were banned.

The rights of the Fourth Estate i.e. the Press and Media, were curbed and it was practically censored with several guidelines being issued both formally and informally. The Press was unambiguously advised to suppress news and assist the Chief Press Advisor of the Government.



The Indian Express leaves its editorial blank as a mark of protest against press censorship.
Later, press succumbed to the pressure by the executive and cooperates with it

Initially, some newspapers resisted and left parts of their pages blank, originally carrying the news/views censored by the government as a mark of protest against censorship. However, later they too succumbed to the pressure.

Terror and suffocation prevailed. One feared to utter a single word against the government or even representatives of the government. Every policeman represented a dictator. There were rumours that the Government had appointed more policemen in plainclothes and everybody was under strict supervision. Anybody could be an agent of the Government. They could charge you of treason if you uttered a single word against the then Government.

Most of it was rumour. Spread by people out of ignorance and fear, and perhaps deliberately encouraged by the Government as it helped the environment of fear spread and engulf every individual, much to the liking of the then Government.

But this information is accessible on the internet to everybody who wants to know. The youngsters wished to know my ‘personal experiences’.

Having just attained adulthood and written the Part I exam of graduation, I was a nobody. What personal experiences worth sharing could I have?

But they kept insisting and I had to delve deep into my memories, and found that despite being a nobody, I too had some stories to tell.

Within a few days after the Emergency was proclaimed and the RSS was banned, thousands of its workers and leaders were detained and everybody who had been associated with this nationalist organisation was waiting for his or her turn with a spirit of “Sarfaroshi Ki Tamanna Ab Hamare Dil Me Hai” (The desire for revolution is in our hearts) as stated by the freedom fighter Ram Prasad Bismil.

I was a regular swayamsevak (volunteer) of RSS up to standard IX. Even as a boy, I looked after its five evening Shakhas (branches). They promote you quite early in the RSS. Thereafter, I severed my links with the local leaders of RSS due to some personal differences. I had not been in touch with the RSS leadership for more than four years, which was quite a long period for the adolescent that I was.  

But I came to know through some friends that the police was making enquiries about me, and that my name was there in the list they had prepared for the next round of arrests in the area. I had no source to confirm the veracity of these reports. But my family was worried. For them I was a kid, and they could not bear the thought of a kid in their family to be arrested for service to the nation.

There were reports that several leaders including Jayaprakash Narayan and Vajpayee lost their health during the period they were jailed. There were several stories of third degree torture to several people who dared to go against the Government.  These reports of tortures by our own Government were no less disturbing than the stories of atrocities on freedom fighters by the British rulers.

I went ‘underground’. I feel amused to think of those days now. Today, I doubt that my name was even there on that list. But I did go underground for about a week as nobody in my family could reject this unconfirmed report, and they wanted to see me safe.

When I came back home, after about a week, my young mind had resolved that I would fight the Government against this draconian proclamation and against the atrocities on people. I got in touch with RSS activists I had known when I used to be active and shared my resolve with them. We started meeting under lamp posts and in the market-places. But it was fraught with risks. We could not meet for long and often had to disburse before completing the stories we were sharing as we suspected someone watching us. And what kind of stories did we share? Stories of our freedom fighters, of how fearless they were and how they gave away their lives for the sake of their Motherland.

I thought of a novel way. I formed a library in our locality. It was opened at the residence of an unsuspecting friend of ours whose father was a local Congress leader. We named the library “Veer Shivaji Smarak Bal Pustakalay” (Veer Shivaji Memorial Children’s Library). We ran this library with complete dedication. Most of the collection was contributed from our homes. They were mostly books on martyrs and their stories. We started meeting there regularly at different hours so that nobody came to know about our activities.

But we realised that even after weeks, we had not any practical steps. In fact, we could not think of anything we could practically do. We were just trying to keep one another motivated. We needed to broaden our base and take some action to change the state of affairs.

Months after months were spent repeating the same things over and over again, until we came across a senior who, impressed with our dedication and commitment, invited us to a meeting at a bungalow in Lutyens’ Delhi.  When we reached there, it turned out to be the residence of Gulzarilal Nanda, ex-PM. Deserted by the leadership and forlorn, Mr. Nanda was running a trust called Manav Dharm Mission. He was later awarded the highest civilian award, the Bharat Ratna, for his outstanding contribution to the nation. We started going there every week. We were addressed by him on two occasions about the principles of austerity and temperance that the trust was promoting. It was good hearing him. But our priority was to help our country getting rid of the Emergency. Principles like austerity  were boring for us youngsters at that point in time. Several RSS workers from various parts of the city had already joined the trust. After attending the meetings of the trust, we would re-assemble in the sprawling lawns of the bungalow, pretending to be chitchatting and resting, where we used to discuss Emergency, politics and also got some news that was not published in the press due to censorship.

All the news we got there proved true later. We later realised that this was how news spread those days, through word of mouth. Some of us even used to print the news we got there on small pieces of paper on letterpress and circulate those papers, though nobody would admitted doing that. Sometimes, we used to smile when the latest news revealed in that meeting and shared by us to others would come back to us through other sources within hours!

Some of us were very excited with the role we were playing. But I was not. I wished to do something worthwhile. Something tangible. I wished to do something practical and be the author of the end of the black chapter of Emergency.

But before I could get an opportunity to do anything, I got busy with my final year exams. In March 1977, the Emergency was withdrawn, thanks to some misleading reports by intelligence agencies that Indira Gandhi could easily win elections if held at that time.

What happened after that is another sad chapter in the history of independent India. Parties which fought for ‘Total Revolution’ under the leadership of Jayarakash Narayan won the election, and appointed a commission of inquiry into the excesses committed during the Emergency, headed by Justice J.C. Shah, a former Chief Justice of India, which, in its 525-page long report found that the provisions of MISA and Defence of India Rules were abused during the Emergency in order to damage the political opponents of the Congress. The Parliament passed an act under which two special courts were set up in May 1979 to ensure speedy trial as per the report. But the Janata Party Government fell in 1979 following internal skirmishes owing to petty egos and Indira Gandhi came back to power in 1980. After this, the Supreme Court of India found that the special courts were not constituted legally, on which pretext no trial was ever conducted. All those indicted by the Shah Commission lived a happy and successful life thereafter. The Shah Commission report was lost and forgotten.

Were there any gains of Emergency? To quote veteran journalist Kuldip Nayar, the imposition of Emergency exposed the timidity of Indian people, moral hypocrisy of society, and fallibility of the press, public servants and judiciary.

Advani speaks only about Indian polity. But what has changed since then?

My young friends in the family do not ask me and nor do I tell them that there were certain things I admired during the Emergency. Trains were neat and punctual. Discipline and honesty were something you would not miss even in government departments. Corruption had gone down at least at lower ranks. Delhi was clean and orderly.

Do we need an Emergency once again to get a good governance?

I look outside my window and find the Sun rising. It is dawn. When will India, my nation, witness its dawn?

 
 
 

Saturday, February 28, 2015

Budget 2015 - Consolidation for Cooperative Federalism

The supporters of BJP would have liked any kind of budget Jaitely presented. The supporters of opposition parties too are duty-bound to find faults with it even if they are convinced that this is a good budget.

I too may have my own biases. Please feel free to check me wherever you find me biased.

I started listening to FM Jaitely reading out his budget 2015 with a lot of expectations generated out of the hype created by electronic media. Raising of income-tax exemption limit, raising of limits under section 80-C etc. were but some of the things I was expecting while listening to the Finance Minister attentively.

I must admit that I was disappointed. And I cannot blame it on media alone for this disappointment. FM Jaitely himself had stated, while presenting his maiden budget last year, that he wished to give more exemption which he could not, that being his first budget.

When the FM finished his speech, I realised the compulsions that did not allow him to be liberal like last year.

I realised that the FM had forgotten to mention the much-publicised key project of PM Modi i.e. Smart Cities. I realised that no budgetary allocation was announced for it. It was futile then, to expect any further tax exemption for repayment of home loans or interest payment thereon which experts in media was kind of guaranteeing to us!

I then linked it with an interview of former FM Yashwant Sinha, wherein he expressed the state of Indian economy as not promising for various reasons like 

a). The Govt. is committed to the fiscal discipline that does not allow making funds available through fiscal deficit;
b). Despite all efforts by the Modi Govt. so far, Make in India is not getting too many buyers so far resulting in not too much of FDI coming in; Jaitely too mentioned that PPP model for different projects is not picking up;
c). Domestic saving that used to be at 37% level during Vajpayee regime has come down to around 30%; 

And I realised there was one more reason not mentioned by Mr. Sinha but it did tie FM Jaitely’s hands. That is

d). Sharing 42% of centre’s revenue with states against 32% shared so far.


Courtesy: The Telegraph


I also realised that despite all these limitations FM Jaitely has done well.

He had to kind of shelve the Smart Cities project and some other ambitious projects. He could also not give more money to consumers for consumption so as to boost the economy through demand.

But he sent positive signals to the Corporate world without actually compromising on the revenue from Corporate Sector.

He also did a lot for the rural India and the poor. Some of these initiatives are Atal Pension Yojna, Insurance of upto Rs.2 lakh against a premium of Re.1/- per month. 

He also did not compromise on various long term infra projects like housing, ultra mega power projects, and upgradation of schools etc.

And all this, despite transfer of about 1.78 lakh crore of centre’s share to states. 

Hats off to the co-operative federalism!

Thursday, February 12, 2015

Not Too Difficult to Fall from Heaven in Delhi!

People are trying to interpret/digest the huge victory of AAP and ignominious defeat of BJP in Delhi. Various theories are being propounded to understand this phenomenon found 'unbelievable' by the supporters of not only BJP but AAP and others too.

Before I start writing further, there is an admission I must make. I had thought about writing on this topic even before the results were out and I was sure that the results would be in favour of BJP despite the mainstream media showing a different picture, distorted, according to me.

I was shocked when various channels started showing trends and I, for a while, concluded that I did not deserve to write on politics and elections. These are beyond me, I thought.

But it did not deter me from continuing my internship in the field of politics and I believe that I know a lot now that needs to be shared with the world. I will continue to have faith in my knowledge until the next elections in another State prove me wrong!

What I Expected and Why

Let me begin with what I expected and the basis of my expectations. We know that BJP had annexed 32 seats in 2013 Delhi Assembly Elections against 28 of AAP. The deemed number of seats to BJP went up to 60 and AAP share reduced to 10 in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. 

The seat sharing would change in 2015 Assembly polls depending upon the developments during the intervening period. What happened during this period? BJP won almost all state elections. Modi Govt. performed well on almost all the fronts - from economic to foreign affairs. On the other side, AAP was deserted by many of its stalwarts with serious allegations. BJP even had a face in Delhi now in Kiran Bedi, an experienced administrator with proven credentials. There was HavalaAtMidnight in the final stage which left AAP speechless.

Even if there were some takers of the promises of AAP, the seat share could not drop much lower. BJP was bound to get more than what it got in 2013. My estimate, on this ground, was minimum 40 seats for BJP.

Now, to the results


Congress got zero. Not surprising because even in Parliamentary Elections of 2014, it had scored zero only if counting is done for different 70 assembly segments. But BJP scoring just 3 against 60 in 2014 seems unbelievable though several studies have since explained it well.


Statistical Game

It is primarily a game of statistics. Compared with 2013 Assembly Elections, the vote share of BJP has been almost intact. It is the Congress and others' vote share that got shifted to AAP, as a result of which they performed so well in terms of the number of seats.


Now a little comparison with 2014 Lok Sabha elections. From about 33% in 2013, BJP jumped up to above 46% votes. AAP too gained from about 29% to 32%.
 

In 2015 Assembly elections, AAP gained about 25% extra votes. At whose cost? BJP's vote share came down from about 46% in 2014 to 32% in 2015. It is wrong, therefore, to say that BJP vote bank remained intact.

Let us summarise this statistical jargon:

- 13% vote share joined BJP in 2014 which not only shifted to AAP in 2015 but took away with it 1% more from BJP.
- In 2014, AAP too gained 1% vote share, obviously from Congress and non-BJP parties. In 2015, gained 25% more.
- Where did this 25% come from? 14% from BJP and remaining 11% from Congress and other parties.

It is, as such, not fair to say that AAP won because Congress supported it indirectly.


Factors that tilted the balance in favour of AAP

A survey was conducted on Facebook while results were coming out. It was responded by about 100 FB members. This is a small sample, but it does give an insight into what made AAP win.




Several factors were indicated by members out of which the maximum people identified the following reasons for BJP debacle:

i.     People voted for freebies promised by AAP
ii.    BJP is losing because of its own infighting
iii.   It was a contest between BJP and mainstream media in which media won

Some other interesting factors were also indicated by members, though not in large number, like:

iv.   Complacency on the part of BJP cadre was responsible, as they relied on 
       Modi-magic instead of working at the grass-root level
v.    People are frustrated with BJP now and
vi.   Rape city wants anarchy to increase.

One may agree with reasons or find some other reasons responsible but what came to the fore was that people generally believe that the promise of freebies, infighting in BJP and the direct confrontation of BJP with media were the major reasons generally identified by the people.

We can relate these factors with the voting percentages we have discussed above too. 

13% new voters supported BJP in 2014 and shifted to AAP in 2015. This is a big number of vacillating voters. They supported BJP in 2014 due to Modi charisma but deserted the party less than a year after being lured by the big promises made by Kejriwal's AAP. Only 1% of BJP's vote in 2013 shifted to AAP despite these big promises.

Remaining 11% additional votes polled by AAP came from Congress and non-BJP parties. Obviously, these voters had little hopes from the parties they voted for in 2014 and found AAP more promising despite the fact that Kejriwal had ditched them in 2013. Whether it was the greed of freebies or new-found faith in Kejriwal is a different matter.

What lessons does this election give to various parties and stake-holders in this democratic event?

Congress
Tough days ahead. But the loss is not much. Though lost a few seats it could manage in 2013, in 2014, it had already been reduced to zero Assembly segments.

May have to wait for its turn till people are frustrated with both AAP and BJP. 

AAP
This is a big responsibility. They have won for the first time. From party no.2 in 2013 to 96% seats in 2015 is a huge responsibility. 

The promises they made, seem to be an uphill task. But if they believe that they can pass on the responsibility of their failure on Center, they would commit suicide for, the electorate of Delhi is unforgiving.

They should not forget that Congress led in 68 Assembly segments in 2009 whereas AAP has managed one less than that number. (Pic 1)

It is not too difficult to fall from heights in Delhi!

BJP
BJP, despite not winning seats required to be recognised as principal opposition party is still the second party in Assembly and the only party in opposition.

This is not the first time they have seen this ignominy in Delhi. They can afford to take heart that their performance is still better than their performance in the Parliamentary elections in 2009 when they led only in 2 Assembly segments. (Pic 1)

But after their scintillating performance in 2014 Lok Sabha polls and Assembly polls in various states after that, this seems to be a fall from heaven. There are many lessons they need to learn from this election, some of them may be:

- Don't confront with the mainstream media, like their leader Amit Shah did openly with Aaj Tak, howsoever biased it looks to them. Perhaps they need to take some classes from Congress;

- Don't rely too much on social-media; it's a double-edged sword;

- Don't underestimate even a Harsh Vardhan; a leader of Kiran Bedi's stature too may lose if small leaders are ignored;

Now, please don't ask me what to do with Sadhvis or Sakshis in BJP. BJP does not need foes when it has such friends with it!

But why should we interfere in their internal matters!







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