Not Too Difficult to Fall from Heaven in Delhi!

People are trying to interpret/digest the huge victory of AAP and ignominious defeat of BJP in Delhi. Various theories are being propounded to understand this phenomenon found 'unbelievable' by the supporters of not only BJP but AAP and others too.

Before I start writing further, there is an admission I must make. I had thought about writing on this topic even before the results were out and I was sure that the results would be in favour of BJP despite the mainstream media showing a different picture, distorted, according to me.

I was shocked when various channels started showing trends and I, for a while, concluded that I did not deserve to write on politics and elections. These are beyond me, I thought.

But it did not deter me from continuing my internship in the field of politics and I believe that I know a lot now that needs to be shared with the world. I will continue to have faith in my knowledge until the next elections in another State prove me wrong!

What I Expected and Why

Let me begin with what I expected and the basis of my expectations. We know that BJP had annexed 32 seats in 2013 Delhi Assembly Elections against 28 of AAP. The deemed number of seats to BJP went up to 60 and AAP share reduced to 10 in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. 

The seat sharing would change in 2015 Assembly polls depending upon the developments during the intervening period. What happened during this period? BJP won almost all state elections. Modi Govt. performed well on almost all the fronts - from economic to foreign affairs. On the other side, AAP was deserted by many of its stalwarts with serious allegations. BJP even had a face in Delhi now in Kiran Bedi, an experienced administrator with proven credentials. There was HavalaAtMidnight in the final stage which left AAP speechless.

Even if there were some takers of the promises of AAP, the seat share could not drop much lower. BJP was bound to get more than what it got in 2013. My estimate, on this ground, was minimum 40 seats for BJP.

Now, to the results

(Pic 1)

Congress got zero. Not surprising because even in Parliamentary Elections of 2014, it had scored zero only if counting is done for different 70 assembly segments. But BJP scoring just 3 against 60 in 2014 seems unbelievable though several studies have since explained it well.

Statistical Game

It is primarily a game of statistics. Compared with 2013 Assembly Elections, the vote share of BJP has been almost intact. It is the Congress and others' vote share that got shifted to AAP, as a result of which they performed so well in terms of the number of seats.

(Pic 2)

Now a little comparison with 2014 Lok Sabha elections. From about 33% in 2013, BJP jumped up to above 46% votes. AAP too gained from about 29% to 32%.

 

(Pic 3)

In 2015 Assembly elections, AAP gained about 25% extra votes. At whose cost? BJP's vote share came down from about 46% in 2014 to 32% in 2015. It is wrong, therefore, to say that BJP vote bank remained intact.

Let us summarise this statistical jargon:

- 13% vote share joined BJP in 2014 which not only shifted to AAP in 2015 but took away with it 1% more from BJP.
- In 2014, AAP too gained 1% vote share, obviously from Congress and non-BJP parties. In 2015, gained 25% more.
- Where did this 25% come from? 14% from BJP and remaining 11% from Congress and other parties.

It is, as such, not fair to say that AAP won because Congress supported it indirectly.

Factors that tilted the balance in favour of AAP

A survey was conducted on Facebook while results were coming out. It was responded by about 100 FB members. This is a small sample, but it does give an insight into what made AAP win.

(Pic 4)

Several factors were indicated by members out of which the maximum people identified the following reasons for BJP debacle:

i.     People voted for freebies promised by AAP

ii.    BJP is losing because of its own infighting

iii.   It was a contest between BJP and mainstream media in which media won

Some other interesting factors were also indicated by members, though not in large number, like:

iv.   Complacency on the part of BJP cadre was responsible, as they relied on 

       Modi-magic instead of working at the grass-root level

v.    People are frustrated with BJP now and

vi.   Rape city wants anarchy to increase.

One may agree with reasons or find some other reasons responsible but what came to the fore was that people generally believe that the promise of freebies, infighting in BJP and the direct confrontation of BJP with media were the major reasons generally identified by the people.

We can relate these factors with the voting percentages we have discussed above too. 

13% new voters supported BJP in 2014 and shifted to AAP in 2015. This is a big number of vacillating voters. They supported BJP in 2014 due to Modi charisma but deserted the party less than a year after being lured by the big promises made by Kejriwal's AAP. Only 1% of BJP's vote in 2013 shifted to AAP despite these big promises.

Remaining 11% additional votes polled by AAP came from Congress and non-BJP parties. Obviously, these voters had little hopes from the parties they voted for in 2014 and found AAP more promising despite the fact that Kejriwal had ditched them in 2013. Whether it was the greed of freebies or new-found faith in Kejriwal is a different matter.

What lessons does this election give to various parties and stake-holders in this democratic event?

Congress

Tough days ahead. But the loss is not much. Though lost a few seats it could manage in 2013, in 2014, it had already been reduced to zero Assembly segments.

May have to wait for its turn till people are frustrated with both AAP and BJP. 

AAP

This is a big responsibility. They have won for the first time. From party no.2 in 2013 to 96% seats in 2015 is a huge responsibility. 

The promises they made, seem to be an uphill task. But if they believe that they can pass on the responsibility of their failure on Center, they would commit suicide for, the electorate of Delhi is unforgiving.

They should not forget that Congress led in 68 Assembly segments in 2009 whereas AAP has managed one less than that number. (Pic 1)

It is not too difficult to fall from heights in Delhi!

BJP

BJP, despite not winning seats required to be recognised as principal opposition party is still the second party in Assembly and the only party in opposition.

This is not the first time they have seen this ignominy in Delhi. They can afford to take heart that their performance is still better than their performance in the Parliamentary elections in 2009 when they led only in 2 Assembly segments. (Pic 1)

But after their scintillating performance in 2014 Lok Sabha polls and Assembly polls in various states after that, this seems to be a fall from heaven. There are many lessons they need to learn from this election, some of them may be:

- Don't confront with the mainstream media, like their leader Amit Shah did openly with Aaj Tak, howsoever biased it looks to them. Perhaps they need to take some classes from Congress;

- Don't rely too much on social-media; it's a double-edged sword;

- Don't underestimate even a Harsh Vardhan; a leader of Kiran Bedi's stature too may lose if small leaders are ignored;

Now, please don't ask me what to do with Sadhvis or Sakshis in BJP. BJP does not need foes when it has such friends with it!

But why should we interfere in their internal matters!